‘Anyone who believes in indefinite growth on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist’
Sir David Attenborough
Autumn always starts with a burst of activity after the summer holiday months, but this year has been more active than most. Donald Trump has been primarily responsible, notably with his determined push for peace in the Middle East: as usual, it's been thoroughly unconventional, but it has worked.
Meanwhile, his tariffs have started exerting major influence on world trade and economic prospects: the impact on markets may be obscured by AI euphemism. However, warnings abound about the risk of a repeat of the dotcom setback 25 years ago, including in this week’s episode of This is Money, and in the statement from Jamie Dimon, Chief Executive of JP Morgan Chase, who warned last week of a potential market setback.
The Nobel Peace Prize Committee has, meanwhile, trod a very measured and diplomatic course in denying Donald Trump the ultimate accolade, although it may be hard not to award it to him in a year’s time if peace is maintained in the Middle East. The Nobel Committee’s emphasis on democracy as the basis for peace was striking, and there's no doubt that Maria Corina Machado deserves the award for her courage.
However, as we wrote on 16th December last year, democracy’s short-termism is also causing real problems for western economies. This year’s party conference season was full of calls for cutting migration and stimulating more economic growth — but are these two aims compatible? As statistics show, migration is almost entirely responsible for population growth in the United Kingdom. All political parties, however, seem to think that they can generate economic growth from a magic money tree while the size of our economically-active population falls.
They are surely living in cloud-cuckoo land in not recognising that you can’t have GDP growth without more young people.
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